A poor turnout of Kanaky voters at long-awaited polls has contributed to hurting their objective in the ongoing struggle of New Caledonia gaining independence from France.
Official results released late on Monday revealed the first uninterrupted provincial elections in the Pacific territory since 2019 heavily favoured the French loyalists, who won 24 out of a possible 54 congress seats across the archipelago's three provinces.
The vote had been held on Sunday amid tight security after past elections had been cancelled twice, including the previous proposed poll which led to violent and deadly outbursts on the streets of its capital, Nouméa, in 2024.
The outcome of the de facto national ballot is the key to shaping future talks with the French government, which still controls New Caledonia's post-colonial status, to gain a form of independence courtesy of the Bougival agreement.
The Melanesian islands' 270,000 inhabitants include approximately 41 per cent of Indigenous Kanaky people compared to 24 percent of European origin, largely French.
Reports indicate there was a reduced voter turnout to Sunday's election compared to the previous poll, down from 66.5 per cent of eligible voters to 63.7 per cent.
While there had been a considerable surge of votes for anti-independence, pro-French parties, particularly in the populous Southern Province through the Loyalist and Rassemblement dual alliance, the clear failure of the Party of Kanak Liberation — colloquially known as Palika — to claim a single seat in the province was a significant blow to the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front's hope for electoral power.
In the other two provinces — the north of the main Grand Terre island and also in the smaller Loyalty Islands — the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front's other parties fared considerably better than the seven won for the Palika, with the Union Calédonienne securing 16 seats in their political heartland while a regional Indigenous party, Dynamique autochtone (Indigenous Movement), picked up a further three.
But the four remaining seats do not appear to favour Kanaky independence, leaving no bloc of votes with an outright majority while ensuring the centrist L'Éveil océanien anointed the kingmaker of a new congress which will first sit on Friday.
Election observers also say exit polls indicated more than one out of every three voters stayed home on Sunday, the majority of them being Indigenous Kanaky.
The grim economic conditions which left many Kanak people not registering their vote amid probable backing of the pro-Melanesian political alliance was said to be about a greater concern for day-to-day concerns.
National Indigenous Times recently reported Union Calédonienne had to push Nouméa transport officials to ensure more buses were provided on Sunday to give economically-struggling Kanaky people more mobility — despite recent rises in fares — to travel to the heavily-reduced number of ballot booths.
Analysts also pointed to the failure of the Bougival process in its attempt to forge a new political statute for New Caledonia and the growing criticism of the political class among many young Indigenous Kanaky and other Wallisian/Futunian, Tahitian or mixed islanders.
It is said the cohort have not benefited from New Caledonia's social and economic advances since the 1998 Noumea accord, further affecting their political apathy for the process.
That has been reflected in the three independence referendums, including the most recent vote in 2021, which returned majorities in favour of New Caledonia remaining a part of France as a unique sui generis collectivity.
The Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front has yet to comment publicly on the results amid Paris controversially ending the frozen electoral register to include more Metropolitan French residents, weakening the political influence of New Caledonia's Indigenous population.
However, the Baku Initiative Group, whose worldwide platform focuses on anti-colonialism and supporting self-determination movements for Indigenous people, has recognised the challenging political climate which it says has ultimately been marked by the French government's propaganda, further pressure from New Caledonia's pro-colonial groups, and Paris's unilateral decision to expand the electorate.
The Baku Initiative Group's statement included: "The new political situation that has emerged in the Kanaky-New Caledonia Congress demonstrates that neither pressures nor Paris's blind support for the interests of the descendants of settler colonisers can extinguish the desire for freedom of a people, who stand firm."