A new statewide survey of more than one thousand Victorians provides the clearest snapshot to date of public attitudes toward Treaty, revealing a clear majority in support, alongside some resistance and uncertainty, and with sharp demographic divides.

Across the sample, 53 per cent of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that there should be a Treaty in Victoria, with only 24 per cent who disagreed or strongly disagreed.

A further 19 per cent remained neutral, and three per cent were undecided.

The headline figure reveals Treaty holds a majority backing within the state. This is a very significant finding, given that the Victorian Liberal/ National Opposition have pledged to abolish Treaty is they were to win the upcoming State election.

The data also points to a complex political landscape beneath this broad overall state-wide support, one shaped by age, geography, and political affiliation.

Strong support among young Victorians

Support for Treaty is strongest among younger Victorians. Around 70 per cent of those aged 18-24 support Treaty. This support remains high, albeit slightly lower, among those aged 25-34 (61 per cent) and 35-44 (59 per cent).

Support increasingly declines with age, dropping to just 31 per cent among those aged 75 and over.

This generational divide is one of the most striking features of the data. Younger cohorts appear more open to structural reform and recognition of First Nations self-determination, while older Australians are significantly more likely to oppose Treaty. These patterns suggest that public attitudes toward Treaty are not static but are likely to shift over time as younger generations become more politically dominant.

Geography also plays a role. Metropolitan respondents are more supportive of Treaty (55 per cent) compared to those in regional areas (45 per cent). This gap reflects broader national trends in attitudes toward First Nations policy, where urban populations tend to express higher levels of support for reform initiatives, such as the 2023 First Nations Voice to Parliament Referendum, than their regional counterparts.

Treaty is increasingly understood through a partisan lens

Political affiliation reveals even sharper divides. Support for Treaty is strongest among Greens voters (82 per cent) and Labor voters (72 per cent), while it is significantly lower among Coalition-aligned respondents, including Liberal (32 per cent) and National (49 per cent) voters. One Nation voters show the highest levels of opposition, with 59 per cent rejecting Treaty.

These patterns indicate that Treaty is increasingly understood through a partisan lens. While it retains cross-party support, it is far from politically neutral, and its future trajectory may depend heavily on how it is framed within broader debates about national identity, governance, and First Nations rights.

Beyond levels of support and opposition, the survey also provides insight into how Victorians are thinking about Treaty, and why they hold the views they do.

Treaty supporters recognise importance of First Peoples having a voice

Among those who support Treaty, the most common reasons relate to the importance of First Peoples having a Voice, respecting First Nations values and culture, recognition, and respect. Other common reasons are that it is important, beneficial, effective, the right thing to do, everyone should be treated equally, have fair treatment, and basic rights, and that it is important for education and truth-telling.

For those who oppose Treaty, the most common reasons are that 1) it would create division 2) it is unnecessary, 3) Australia should not look to the future not the past, and 4) that everyone should be treated equally. These responses reflect enduring narratives within Australian political discourse, which we saw during the 2023 Referendum, that recognition of Indigenous rights risks undermining national unity.

There is also a smaller but notable group of respondents who express distrust in government processes, concerns about public spending, or dissatisfaction with the political system more broadly. While these views are less dominant, they highlight the extent to which attitudes toward Treaty are entangled with broader issues of political trust and legitimacy.

Significant number of Victorians still undecided

Perhaps most significant, however, is the level of uncertainty captured in the data. Nearly one in five respondents remain neutral on Treaty, and half of these don't indicate why they are neutral. This suggests that a substantial portion of the Victorian public is not firmly opposed to Treaty but is instead undecided. For policymakers and advocates, this group represents a critical audience that may be open to engagement, education, and dialogue.

At the same time, the data indicates that opposition may be relatively entrenched. When asked what might persuade them to support Treaty, 79 per cent of those who opposed Treaty stated that nothing would change their view. This points to a hard core of resistance that is unlikely to shift in the short term.

Taken together, these findings present a nuanced picture of public opinion in Victoria. Treaty is supported by a clear majority, particularly among younger, metropolitan, and progressive voters. However, this support coexists with significant opposition, deep generational divides, and a large cohort of undecided individuals.

Communication and understanding the key

The data also underscores the importance of how Treaty is communicated and understood. For many Victorians, Treaty is associated with recognition, justice, and partnership. For others, it raises concerns about division, fairness, and national identity. Bridging these perspectives will be central to the success of Treaty processes in Victoria.

As Victoria continues to progress Treaty, this survey highlights both the opportunities and challenges ahead. There is a strong foundation of public support, but it is not uniform or uncontested. The future of Treaty will depend not only on political leadership and institutional design, but on the challenge of building broader support across a diverse and, at times, divided Victorian public—an effort that, while complex, remains both achievable and essential to its success.

Professor Emma-Jaye Gavin is a Garrwa Aboriginal scholar and the first Indigenous Professor of Truth-Telling in Australia.

Professor Andrew Gunstone is is a leading international authority on reconciliation and is Co-Chair Reconciliation Victoria.

Photo information: Professor Emma-Jaye Gavin and Professor Andrew Gunstone attended the Victorian Parliament on 9 September 2025 to celebrate the Victorian Government introducing the Statewide Treaty Bill. L-R: Professor Andrew Gunstone, First Peoples Assembly of Victoria Co-Chair Ngarra Murray, Professor Emma-Jaye Gavin, First Peoples Assembly of Victoria Member Lisa Briggs, First Peoples Assembly of Victoria Member Uncle Andrew Gardiner.