Warning: The following article contains references to suicide, which may be distressing to readers

Australia's Indigenous incarceration rates continue to rise sharply, while the proportion of children assessed as developmentally on track has declined, according to the latest data.

The Productivity Commission's Closing the Gap dashboard, released on Wednesday night, also shows suicide rates among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people continue to worsen, now more than three times higher than for non-Indigenous Australians. At the same time, there has been no improvement in youth detention rates.

One area of progress is land and sea country, with outcomes continuing to improve for areas subject to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people's legal rights or interests.

Overall, progress remains uneven, according to Productivity Commissioner Selwyn Button.

"These results highlight the importance of governments continuing to implement the commitments in the National Agreement on Closing the Gap and working in partnership with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people," the Gungarri man said.

"We will be looking at this closely in our next review of governments' progress towards the Agreement, which we are due to commence this year."

A government spokesperson said the data "reinforces the need for all governments and Coalition of Peaks partners to continue working together to achieve the outcomes set out in the National Agreement on Closing the Gap".

The updated data shows only four Closing the Gap targets are on track to be met. Five are improving but not on track, while two show no change from the baseline.

Four key targets are worsening: suicide, incarceration, the number of children developmentally on track, and children in out-of-home care.

The number of Indigenous adults in prison continues to climb, as stricter bail policies are implemented nationwide. In 2025, the national imprisonment rate reached 2,500.2 per 100,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults — 16.7 times that of non-Indigenous adults.

Rates are even higher in some jurisdictions, including 4,305.9 per 100,000 in Western Australia and 4,166.7 in the Northern Territory. In New South Wales, home to the largest Indigenous population in the country, both youth and adult incarceration rates have gotten worse.

Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe said the data showed the Closing the Gap agreement is failing, calling it an "ineffective distraction that does not address the most fundamental injustices First Peoples face".

"This framework has no real enforceability, no accountability for states and territories, and no recourse for our people when governments breach their commitments or violate our rights," she said. "Instead, it has become political cover. Something governments point to in order to claim progress, while actively enacting policies that drive child removals, incarceration, and deaths in custody."

Suicide rates have also increased significantly, with the rate for males almost doubling since 2011. However, women account for nearly two-thirds (62.5 per cent) of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people hospitalised for intentional self-harm injuries.

In his Closing the Gap address last month, the Prime Minister acknowledged the scale of the crisis, particularly in regional and remote communities.

Announcing $13.9 million to boost the national support line 13 YARN, he told Parliament: "Suicide shatters families, it tears apart communities. So often amidst the grief, loved ones return to the heartbreaking question: how did it come to this?"

Child development outcomes are also deteriorating. The proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children assessed as developmentally on track across all five domains of the Australian Early Development Census has fallen to 33.9 per cent, down from 35.2 per cent in 2018 and more than 20 percentage points below non-Indigenous children.

In remote areas, this figure drops to just 16.5 per cent.

In the Northern Territory, it is 16.9 per cent, and 24.1 per cent in the ACT. Nationally, only 26.5 per cent of young Indigenous males are developmentally on track across all five domains, compared with 41 per cent of females.

Progress on babies born with a healthy birthweight has also stalled, now showing no change from the 2019 baseline after previously being assessed as improving. However, it is understood the small number of babies born outside the healthy birthweight range each year make the data more unpredictable.

The government says the data shows outcomes for First Peoples varied markedly across states and territories, with "significantly poorer results in remote areas".

Senator Thorpe reiterated that the federal government needed to follow through with previous discussions around financial penalties and "real consequences" for states and territories who breach the Closing the Gap agreement.

"Until accountability is built into the system, and until the Federal Government takes responsibility and does its job, Closing the Gap will remain a fundamentally ineffective framework that fails our people," she said.

"National leadership means stepping in and ending harmful policies. The Albanese Government needs to act."

Four Closing the Gap targets remain on track, including land and sea country rights, access to high-quality, culturally appropriate early childhood education, and strong economic participation.

It is understood the government feels the investment they have made — including into remote jobs and childhood education — have begun to show dividends.

Last month, they announced $144 million to upgrade more than 100 Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services in metropolitan and regional areas. It also expanded the remote jobs program from 3,000 to 6,000 positions and extended remote food subsidies.

"As outlined in the Commonwealth's 2026 Implementation Report, the Australian Government is committed to building on what is working and investing in the areas that make the greatest difference," a government spokesperson said.

"This includes programs focused on creating remote jobs and training opportunities, easing cost of living pressures and strengthening food security in remote communities, and improving housing, health and education outcomes for First Nations people."

13YARN: 13 92 76

Brother to Brother: 1800 435 799

Yarning SafeNStrong: 1800 959 563

Lifeline: Call 13 11 14