The Northern Territory Government has been accused of cherry-picking data to argue its suite of new policies is pushing crime down, with a new report arguing it is often "misleading" the public about the reforms' effectiveness.
The Country Liberal Party (CLP) Government — which has argued in numerous media releases that crime is down across the Territory, often linking the decline to its 'tough on crime' policies — has relied on incomplete and unverified data, according to a new report from the Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research.
Police bail refusals are up 55 per cent since reforms were introduced after the CLP took office in 2024, Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro said in a statement last month, adding there had been a 50 per cent decrease in youth offending on bail, while crimes involving edged weapons were down 12 per cent.
However, Jumbunna argued the CLP's messaging is "not presenting an accurate and complete picture through data of the prevalence of crime in the NT," which in turn fails to justify the necessity of its 'tough on crime' policies.
"The absence of publicly available data on a key indicator established by the CLP as evidence that its 'tough on crime' agenda is producing improved safety outcomes for people in the NT makes it impossible to test the government's claims and therefore contributes to a lack of transparency and accountability," the authors of the report state.
One of the report's co-authors, Tatiana Corrales, told the ABC the NT Government was "cherry-picking" favourable data to support its claims.
"I'm not convinced that that's unique to the NT government ... but I think it's particularly problematic in the NT because [they] pushed through such punitive legislation that is really having a negative impact on communities across the NT."
While the Government has made "numerous claims" that its approach to crime — which has included stricter bail laws and lowering the age of criminal responsibility — is working, the data shows "that the reality is much more complex than a straightforward reduction in crime," the report says.
"What is clear is that 'community safety' is not increasing for those First Nations Peoples, including children and young people, who are differentially impacted through 'tough on crime' policies, including through increasing rates of detention."
The CLP Government has defended its policies, arguing they are addressing a crime crisis inherited from the previous Labor Government and that it has a mandate to lower crime.
"We're finally beginning to turn the tide, as the stats and stories show, but there's much more work to do," Attorney-General Marie-Clare Boothby said last month.
The number of people incarcerated in the Territory has increased over the past two years, with the NT's prison rate the second-highest in the world, behind only El Salvador.
More than one per cent of the population is currently behind bars — almost half on remand — while gaps in legal funding for Legal Aid, along with an increasing number of people being charged, have left some accused people forced to represent themselves in court.
Police system creates challenges for crime comparisons
The NT Government has shown an "overreliance on policing data to make its case" that the reforms are working, the authors say, arguing that "crime data should not be viewed as the single, or even the most reliable source of information on the prevalence of crime".
"Data collected by police is subject to a range of systemic, structural and operational factors that influence what is counted, and more importantly, what is not counted," the report says.
The NT Police's SerPro crime data system, introduced in late 2023, makes comparisons with pre-2023 data unreliable, the report's authors say, noting that the publication of SerPro data can be delayed by up to five months.
"These factors can influence how data is interpreted and presented to the public," Jumbunna says. "While the NT Police Force produces publicly available monthly crime statistics through the Department of the Attorney-General and Justice, the process by which crime data is collected and 'cleaned' for analysis and publication is opaque."
Even where recorded crime decreases, the authors argue it cannot automatically be concluded that the Government's new laws caused the reduction.
Increased and punitive policing, as well as tougher penalties, fail to "address the social determinants of justice". Instead, they "contribute to increased criminalisation, more entrenched contact with the criminal legal system and ultimately, greater harm to individuals and communities".
"Addressing the 'root causes' of crime therefore necessitates acknowledging and addressing the historical impacts of colonisation on Aboriginal people and the conditions this has created that drive disparities across a range of areas that both directly and indirectly contribute to crime, as well as systemic racism within the legal system."
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