Support for No firm but Yes gains ground - new poll

Callan Morse Published October 11, 2023 at 6.10pm (AWST)

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The 'No' vote leads the 'Yes' campaign by five per cent according to Roy Morgan opinion polling data published Tuesday. (Image: Roy Morgan)

Support for the 'No' campaign remains firm ahead of Saturday's Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, according to opinion polling published on Tuesday.

The latest opinion poll, conducted by Roy Morgan saw 50 per cent the poll's 905 participants indicate they will vote 'No' in the upcoming Voice referendum, an increase of four per cent from the same poll conducted the week previous.

The poll saw the 'Yes' result also increase, with 45 per cent of respondents, an eight per cent increase on the previous poll, indicate they intend to vote in favour of the Voice on Saturday.

Respondents were asked 'This month's referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?'

Five per cent of poll respondents remained undecided, representing a 12 per cent decrease in undecided voters compared to Roy Morgan's previous poll data.

Roy Morgan surveying from the last two weeks shows support for the Voice is highest in Victoria and Tasmania, with the 'No' case is clearly leading in Queensland and Western Australia.

The poll suggests New South Wales and South Australia are also expected to vote 'No'.

A successful referendum demands not only a majority of people nationally but also a majority of people in a majority of states (at least four out of six).

Polling data also continued to display a gender gap, with the majority of men saying they will vote 'No' while there are slightly more women who say they will vote 'Yes' rather than 'No'.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed the government wouldn't legislate an Indigenous Voice if the referendum was unsuccessful.

"If Australians vote no, I don't believe that it would be appropriate to then go and say 'oh well you've had your say but we're going to legislate anyway,'" he told ABC's Insiders.

"We will continue to do what we can to listen to Indigenous Australians… but Indigenous Australians are saying that they want it to be enshrined."

'No' campaigner and former PM, Tony Abbott said the Voice is a "huge leap into the constitutional dark", suggesting the 'Yes' campaign are asking Australians to "sign a blank cheque on the constitution".