The overrepresentation of First Nations peoples in the criminal justice system isn't only failing Closing the Gap targets, it's worsening, and costing more than $700 million in a 12 month period in NSW alone.
In 2024-2025 the disproportionate rates — which are more than 10 times higher than non-Indigenous people in the state — cost prisons, community corrections and courts an estimated $159 million in relation to adults, and $159 million in relation to children.
This is the estimated findings of a new report from Just Reinvest NSW.
It does not include figures attached to contact with police or the child protection system "despite its close correlation with the criminal justice system" per the report.
Data was taken from the Productivity Commission Report on Government Services (RoGS) and NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR).
"This report estimates that the cost to government of overrepresentation was at least $718 million for 2024-25. Further, this cost has increased 41.7 percent in just five years," Just Reinvest's Held at Cost: The cost to government of Aboriginal overrepresentation in the NSW criminal justice system, 2020-21 to 2024-25)' report reads.
Targets 10 and 11 of the national agreement on Closing the Gap aims to reduce the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults held in incarceration by at least 15 per cent, and of of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people (10-17 years) in detention by a minimum 30 per cent.
The aim is to see First Nations people no longer overrepresented in the criminal justice system.
Nationally, for adults in 2025 and for children in 2024-25, the rates worsened and show no change from baseline levels, respectively.
In NSW, First Nations children in detention increased significantly between 2021 and last year.
Over the last two years, it's been the same story for First Nations adults in the state.
"The money is not the argument. It is a measure of the scale of resources being spent on a pattern that governments have committed to ending," the report reads.
In 2020-21, the overrepresentation of First Nations people in the NSW criminal justice system cost Government $506.7 million.
This steadily increased year-on-year to $718.1 million in four years, according to Just Reinvest NSW.
Rates of First Nations people coming into contact with the criminal justice system have also been increasing.
Earlier this year, BOSCAR Executive Director Jackie Fitzgerald said: "The incarceration rate for Aboriginal adults is now an alarming 15 times higher than for non-Aboriginal adults."
"In December 2025, around one in 25 Aboriginal men living in NSW was in prison." Ms Fitzgerald said.
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A NSW Government spokesperson told National Indigenous Times "We acknowledge the overrepresentation of Aboriginal people in the criminal justice system," adding the increase in the number of First Nations people in custody in the state "largely reflects an increase in bail refusals."
NSW introduced new bail laws, raising a wave of concern from Aboriginal organisations and experts, in 2024.
"The Government is prioritising community safety, as the public would expect," the spokesperson said.
"At the same time, we are working with communities to reduce crime, its drivers and towards our Closing the Gap targets regarding Indigenous incarceration."
First Nations people in NSW made up 34 per cent of the adult prison population, per Just Reinvest NSW's 2025-26 findings.
"In 2024-25, it cost $318.66 a day to hold an adult in prison in New South Wales, against $22.59 a day to supervise an adult in the community. Prison therefore costs 14.1 times as much as community supervision," their report outlines.
The organisation endorses a turn away from punitive approaches towards community-led solutions.
"The overrepresentation of Aboriginal people in the justice system has become normalised and remains unacceptable. This report quantifies what the actual cost of overrepresentation is. We can do better, and we must do better," Just Reinvest NSW chief executive Geoff Scott said.
"We asked the question: if Aboriginal people came into contact with the criminal justice system at the same rate as their share of the population, how much less would that cost be?
"By analysing Report on Government Services (ROGS) data, we found that overrepresentation has a large price tag."
