Backing the Indigenous Voice to Parliament was Peter Dutton's "best chance of transforming himself into a supportable prime minister", Noel Pearson says - and a longtime Coalition strategist agrees.
In his 2022 election night speech, now re-elected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signalled his commitment to the Uluru Statement from the Heart "in-full" and pursuit of a "gracious call for a voice enshrined in our constitution".
Since the Voice's defeat in October 2023, Labor and Mr Albanese have distanced themselves from the proposal and referendum result, Mr Pearson noted in a recent column for The Australian.
The Coalition, led by Mr Dutton since the 2022 election, actively opposed the Voice and campaigned for a 'No' vote.
The former Opposition leader and Member for Dickson was "one person, one political leader, for whom the Voice was a political antivenene rather than the poisonous venom it became for Albanese and everyone else," Mr Pearson wrote.
Mr Pearson suggested Mr Dutton may have benefitted from a shift in the public's perception, a Coalition move towards the centre of the political spectrum, by supporting the Voice.
The Cape York Indigenous leader, activist, lawyer and Uluru Statement co-architect added, after having met with Mr Dutton: "I knew he was making calculations" on the cost of supporting or standing against the Voice, a decision Mr Pearson added was made "for him" by Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who he said "became a folk hero" after fronting the Opposition's position against.
"Had he supported the referendum he would have had the best chance of transforming himself into a supportable prime minister on May 3. Along with the Blackfellas, Dutton is the biggest victim of the failure of the voice," Mr Pearson wrote.
At the weekend, Mark Textor - co-founder of consultancy firm CT Group, who held a long-time association with the Liberal Party before the relationship ended shortly after the referendum, agreed with some of Mr Pearson's assessment.
Mr Textor was a director of the Yes23 campaign.
Mr Pearson wrote that advice given to Scott Morrison as Prime Minister, then Mr Dutton as Opposition leader supporting the Voice "was good politics for the Liberals ... did not prevail".
Mr Textor wrote on LinkedIn: "I've been unwilling to speak about the campaign because I'm non-Indigenous, but this part is certainly true. To adapt the words of Ronald Reagan; "I didn't leave the Liberal Party, the Liberal Party left me"".
Mr Pearson also issued his assessment of Labor's post-Voice defeat action on Indigenous Affairs.
"Albanese and Labor had to run away fast from their association with the voice and Blackfellas, for their opponents were now seeking to hang the albatross of the voice around Labor's throat," he wrote.
"This Albanese did from the first night. To me it was shameless, but I'm enough of a realist to know that without the assiduous flight from the Voice over this past year-and-a-half, last Saturday's result for Labor would not have been possible. All political capital on behalf of Indigenous Australians was spent – the account was indeed overdrawn – and there was no prospect for anything in the remainder of the first term. Or, in my view, from a second.
"There was nothing from the Prime Minister in 2024, and again in 2025. These 18 months past have been the most forlorn in the history of Indigenous affairs. There has been no serious policy or program progress. Extreme paranoia permeated everything to do with Blackfellas in Canberra, even in relation to subjects far removed from the voice," Mr Pearson wrote.
"I am not here to deny the voice had become a liability. Albanese's great achievement in this election was the dexterity with which he extricated himself from its liability and recovered his prime ministership and electoral supremacy. Houdini would have been impressed."
