Tropical Cyclone Alfred is highly likely to make landfall along the southeast Queensland or northeast New South Wales coast later this week as a category 1 or 2 system, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
As of 11 am AEST Sunday, Alfred remains at category 2 strength, with wind gusts reaching 130 km/h.
The system is currently located 370 km northeast of Bundaberg, moving southeast through an area with less favourable conditions for intensification.
However it is expected to encounter a ridge of high pressure on Tuesday, turning it westward and bringing it towards the Queensland and New South Wales coast.
Landfall is expected on Wednesday or Thursday.
Current forecasts place the most likely landfall zone between K'gari (Fraser Island) and Evans Head in New South Wales.
Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast are at high risk, but there is still a chance Alfred could track further north towards Bundaberg or further south along the New South Wales coast.
Once inland, Alfred is expected to weaken but could bring heavy rain to the New South Wales Northern Tablelands, Slopes, and Plains before dissipating.
The projected path includes areas with high Indigenous populations, including lands of the Bundjalung, Yugambeh, and Githabul peoples.
Communities in Lismore, Casino, Ballina, Byron Bay, Grafton, Logan City, the Gold Coast, Scenic Rim, Tweed Heads, and Woodenbong may experience these severe weather conditions and flooding due to their proximities to major river catchments.
Warm waters in the East Australian Current could allow Alfred to intensify before landfall.
It is expected to bring sustained winds of 70-110 km/h, with gusts reaching up to 160 km/h along the coast and nearby inland areas.
Rainfall and flooding are among the main concerns.
Heavy rainfall is expected across southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales, with widespread falls of 200-400mm and isolated totals of 600-1200mm.
Some areas, including the Logan Valley, Gold Coast Hinterland, and Greater Lismore, could see rainfall rates of 100-250mm in six hours, leading to flash flooding and major river flooding.
Significant coastal impacts are expected, particularly around Byron Bay, where waves could reach 7-8.5m, with maximum wave heights of 14-17m.
A storm surge could increase tidal levels, causing erosion and potential inundation.
Authorities are urging residents in high-risk areas to stay updated on cyclone warnings and prepare for severe weather conditions.
